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Baby Gender Predictions: Old Wives' Tales vs the Evidence

Does carrying high mean a girl? Does the Chinese gender calendar work? See what popular baby sex predictions are based on and what the evidence says.

Before you use this guide: This is general educational information, not an individual medical assessment. We do not identify a clinician reviewer on this page, so please confirm personal health decisions with your doctor, midwife or paediatrician.

People have tried to guess the sex of unborn babies for centuries. Old wives' tales, calendars, charts and online predictors are great party games, but none of them has been shown to work. This guide explains why, and how to enjoy them without taking them too seriously.

The simple truth: it is about 50:50

A baby's sex is decided at conception by whether the sperm carries an X or a Y chromosome. A little over half of babies born are boys, roughly 105 for every 100 girls, so any guess has close to a one-in-two chance of being right. A method that is right half the time looks like it works, especially when people remember the hits and forget the misses.

Popular old wives' tales

• Carrying high means a girl, carrying low means a boy. Where you carry depends mostly on your body shape, muscle tone and how many babies you have had, not on the baby's sex.
• Carrying all in front means a boy, and carrying wide means a girl. This depends on your build and your baby's position.
• Heart rate above 140 beats per minute means a girl. Studies have not found a reliable link between a baby's heart rate and its sex.
• Bad morning sickness means a girl. Some studies have suggested a link between severe sickness and girls, but it is far from a reliable guide, and there are many exceptions.
• Cravings for sweet food mean a girl, and for salty or sour a boy. Cravings are unrelated to the baby's sex.
• Skin breakouts mean a girl, and glowing skin a boy. Hormones change skin in pregnancy, whatever the sex.
• A ring or needle on a string swinging over your bump. The movement comes from small, unconscious movements of your hand.

The Chinese gender calendar

The Chinese gender calendar or chart claims to predict the sex from the mother's age and the month of conception. Stories say that it was found in a royal tomb centuries ago, but there is no credible record of this. Studies that have looked at calendar-style predictions have found them no better than a coin toss. There are many versions of the chart that disagree with each other, which is a sign that none can be right. It is fine as a bit of fun, but it should not be used to plan anything.

The Ramzi method and other early scan theories

Some people believe that the position of the placenta on an early ultrasound shows the sex. Claims of very high accuracy have come from small studies, and they have not been confirmed by independent evidence. Sonographers do not use this method.

Tests you should never try at home

• Do not try mixing urine with drain cleaner, bleach or other chemicals. These products are dangerous, and the results are meaningless.
• Be cautious about online “baking soda tests” or similar. They do not predict the sex.
• Avoid expensive unproven kits that promise an answer based on a symptom or urine sample.

What does work?

If you want a reliable answer, a cell-free DNA blood test from about ten weeks or the mid-pregnancy scan at around 18 to 21 weeks are the best methods, as explained in our guide to when you can find out your baby's sex. Even those are not perfect, but they are far more accurate than any folk method.

Enjoy them as a game

• Make predictions a part of your baby shower games: let guests guess the baby's sex and keep the slips in a jar.
• Hold a vote at a gender reveal party.
• Try a few old wives' tales with friends and see how many agree.
• Be kind to each other. Nobody will be right every time, and a guess is no reason to buy anything for the nursery in a particular colour.

A reminder

What matters in pregnancy is that you and your baby are well. If you have concerns about your health or your baby's movements, contact your doctor or midwife, not a calendar or a chart.

This content is for general information only and is not medical advice. Every pregnancy and every baby is different. Always talk to your doctor, midwife or paediatrician about your own situation, and seek urgent care if you are worried.